1.    Recent Welsh leadership election history suggests the expected successor/early frontrunner wins: Kirsty, Carwyn and Andrew RT were all first out of the blocks, and established a clear lead among senior party figures before the final vote. But in the absence of Adam Price, there’s a different dynamic at play here. While The Good Lord was first to declare, Elin Jones is more of the early favourite in terms of nominations from fellow AMs.

2.    In parties that make policy – leadership is purely a matter of personality. As with the Welsh Lib Dem leadership campaign, because policy-making is a matter for the party at conference, the leadership contest isn’t really about ideas. It’s about who will be the best front-person for those ideas.  And who can persuade the electorate that they are a leader with appeal beyond the party faithful. For that reason, unless one of the four goes nasty, it could be a fairly dull campaign, with repeated coded reference to perceived weaknesses.

3.    The language: There are two schools of thought here. Time will tell whether Leanne’s second language Welsh is a bonus – in that she can argue she can appeal to non-Welsh speaking Wales – or a handicap with the membership.

4.    Voting systems matter – but so does the electorate. All member ballots require either a) an effective campaign, or b) high levels of prior name recognition. The Good Lord has the latter – but the ladies probably have the edge as effective campaigners. Whichever one of Elin or Leanne can corral the largest number of the party’s young activists to work for their campaign, will have the edge. Worth remembering where Plaid’s members are too: the Gwynedd & Carmarthenshire votes could be decisive, and support from the local MPs could be a big factor in a tight race.

5.    While leadership contests choose a leader, they can also define future roles for candidates who impress (and their staff). Huw Lewis’ impressive campaign secured a cabinet position for its eponymous hero, but it also secured significant promotions for his lieutenants too. There are great opportunities for ambitious young researchers to raise their profile and standing within the party over the coming months.

This year has been one where, perhaps for the first time, I've felt myself asking whether I'm falling out of love with music.

Working on some album of the year and books of the year Top 5s (happy to publish guest fives on those), but in the meantime - here's my top five Cardiff Caffs.

Cafes as distinct from restaurants. From a cafe I’m looking for a hearty, but tasty lunch: a sandwich, an interesting salad, a baked potato, ideally with somewhere atmospheric to sit and eat. Should do a range of hot drinks, but also offer interesting soft drinks and juices. Bonus points if I can take the kids at the weekend, without feeling awkward. If there are gems I've missed, let us know in the comments.

1.   Wally’s Deli, which opened its Kaffeehaus earlier this year, is the daddy at the moment. Those open sandwiches. Mmm-mmm. And fresh soups. Cakes are a bit expensive (though delicious), and the service can be on the slow side. But tasteful decoration, newspapers, and a sense of escape from the shopping crowds make it a magical place to be. My absolute favourite right now.

2.    Xemi’s. The salad feast is a must if you’re lunching in the Bay. Never less than interesting, usually containing fruits/veg I can’t even name with 100% confidence. They do great cakes too, and the owner always has a nice word for everyone. Plus the selection of children’s toys means you can take the little ones too. I took some colleagues from the nations  recently and they rave about it every time we speak. What’s more, you can get birthday cards and other craft-y stuff next door. Bonus.

3.    New York Deli; only for when you’re hungry. Hoagies, bagels and other sandwiches, all stuffed to the gunwhales with more meat than you think you can eat. Until you do. The queue can get long at peak lunchtime, so timing is key.

4.    Norwegian Church Cafe. The Norwegian Fisherman’s Lunch will give you a story to tell for months. It’s delicious, but I’m not sure I’ll ever order it again. Pickled fish is an acquired taste – and one I’m not sure I need to acquire. But the rest of the menu is quality basics (baked potato/Panini/sandwiches) and the setting – overlooking the Bay – and the tranquillity of the building are the things to enjoy here.

5.    Madame Fromage. The service was unbelievably slow (and completely unapologetic when we raised this) on my last visit, or otherwise it would have been higher. Great food, large portions, reasonable prices – and an enormous range of cheese and meats to take away.

Also worth a mention: Gwdihw – haven’t been much this year, so didn’t feel qualified to recommend it, but previously excellent; Plan Cafe, over-rated, but still good – staff particularly accommodating with children; Cardiff Market bread stall – not strictly speaking a cafe, but a ham roll and apple crumble from the bread stall in the central isle is my favourite budget lunch. 

Air guitar has its own world championships, and is basically taking over the world. But air drums. What greater expression of joy is there than air drums. Bang, bang, crash! Ace.

So, inspired by a thorough mocking from my work colleagues after I performed an (overly) unselfconscious air drum performance while listening to my iPod in work, here’s my top 5 air drum songs:

Y Gwydr Argyfwng – Cerys Matthews

From her Paid Edrych I lawr album. My current favourite. Bouncy and jaunty all through, then these cascading mini-rolls kick in. Hyfryd. It was this one that exposed me to in-office ridicule.

Hound Dog – Elvis Presley

It’s all about the finger clicks until The King reaches “You aint  no rabbit and you aint no friend of mine.” And on the ‘mine’, a machine gun drum roll unloads, which is just irresistible.

In the Air Tonight – Phil Collins

Obviously. You know the moment I’m thinking of. You can see the gorilla smashing it in your mind’s eye. (It’s about a minute in)

Sports and Wine - Ben Folds Five

From their debut album. The only Ben Folds album you absolutely need to own - although there are other good ones.

Drum break at 2'30", then I defy you not to go in to air piano when that cuts back in.

Uncle Pat – Ash

From the Trailer mini-album. Also has great air guitar appeal – the chorus is just one big fuzzy guitar riff. But the intro is all about the drums.

Bonus didn't quite make it sixth track.

The Sporting Life – Decemberists

Very similar beat to You Can’t Hurry Love

So what makes you smash a couple of biros against the desk in joy? Please let me know in the comments?

Inspired by the forthcoming Ryan Adams album, and this piece in the Guardian, I started thinking about my favourite Ryan Adams albums. Adams is a prolific songwriter, capable of writing in a wide range of styles. Unfortunately, too much of his output has been produced. Not enough has been rejected. With a really strong editing influence on him, we could be talking about one of the great songwriters of all time rather than unfulfilled potential.

Anyway, here’s my five favourite Ryan Adams records:

1.    Gold

From New York to LA, with every state (of emotion) in between. Strong tracks throughout, without the usual filler that seems to clog up so much of his later and earlier work. The (ahem) Gold standard. Adam Duritz of Counting Crows does backing vocal duty.

2.    Heartbreaker

It’s about the potential and the standout tracks. Come Pick Me Up, Oh My Sweet Carolina.

Emmylou Harris sings backing vocals. Gillian Welch and David Rawlings help out too. The record that marks Adams’ emergence from Whiskeytown.

3.    Jacksonville City Nights

Adams’ most country album. What makes it for me is Norah Jones on the backing vocals. It is my contention that Norah Jones is the greatest backing singer in contemporary music. Her duets (with Willie Nelson, Ray Charles, on the Little Willies album) show what a great voice she has – when she isn’t doing the Norah Jones, plodding Jazz-lite stuff that made her rich.

Sublime bonus track cover of Always On My Mind too.

4.    Strangers Almanac

Houses on the Hill is one of the most spare and beautiful tracks Adams and/or Caitlin Cary have ever written. I know a lot of people love Pneumonia, but Strangers Almanac has a better variety of songs for my money.

5.    Demolition

Adams himself never much cared for this collection of outtakes and demos from other unreleased records. But some of the opening tracks (Nuclear, Hallelujah, Starting to Hurt) mark some of his best up-tempo work he’s ever done.

Didn’t make it:

·         Pneumonia (Whiskeytown) – very close to making it. Some really strong tracks throughout.

·         Faithless Street (Whiskeytown)  – raw and raucous. But very patchy.

·         Cold Roses – as is often the case with double albums; a potentially great album, split over two disks and mired in 12 tracks of filler. Magnolia Mountain is great, as is Let it Ride. There are tracks on the second disk I’ve never listened to all the way through.

Britpop, is arguably more about the singles than the albums. Although worth noting that while most of the core acts enjoyed number 1 albums, very few scaled the peaks of the top 40. Click on the track to see/hear it on YouTube. Chart positions taken from Wikipedia.